Why a lower oil price does not automatically mean lower energy costs
Why lower oil prices are no guarantee of lower costs
Because of the war in Ukraine, the oil price rose disproportionately, and it is now only slightly higher than in the period before COVID-19 and before the war began.
From this, we might conclude that product prices and manufacturing costs should turn out lower than in the previous period.
Yet that is not going to happen, and the reasoning does not hold, because emission allowances have risen sharply in euros per tonne. Since 2021, emission allowances have risen steeply, and they are also staying high. This shows that the tradeable permits (the ETS system) linked to greenhouse gases such as CO2 emissions are expensive, and will remain so!
If we look at this pattern, and at Europe lagging behind the “Paris Proof” targets, it seems likely that using oil is not going to get any cheaper. It remains “a crystal ball”, because everyone depends on European directives and national decisions.
What is clear, however, is that if you use fossil raw materials such as oil, you are hugely dependent on every decision the government makes and that is taken in The Hague.
Do you really want to be so dependent on external choices over which you have no control?
If the answer is “No”, this could be an extra motivation to become active in the circular economy.
Anyone who relies on fossil energy remains dependent on geopolitics, emission allowances and policy decisions. We also see that dependency reflected in the concrete changes for 2026.
A market update with a number of changes in 2026 compared with 2025.
As usual, grid management costs and the energy tax on gas have risen again. The energy tax on electricity has fallen slightly, but the tax credit is also slightly lower. Customers who would like exact figures can leave a personal message by replying to this email; we will then look closely at your personal situation and, based on your historical consumption, calculate the differences between 2025 and 2026.
For solar panel owners, 2026 is the last year in which they can still benefit 100% from the net metering scheme. Later in the year, we will therefore provide specific advice on what we think is best in your situation. In some cases this may be a dynamic contract, while others will benefit more from a fixed feed-in tariff with a supplier that does not charge (exorbitant) fees for feeding electricity back into the grid.
Looking at how energy tariffs have developed, we see this as positive so far. The dynamic market (day-ahead market) has not seen any upward spikes, and the forward purchasing markets (ENDEX) are still particularly favourable. The 2026 delivery year does show slight increases, but the 2027/2028/2029 delivery years in particular can still be fixed at very favourable rates.
But, as is so often the case, nothing is guaranteed, given that gas reserves have fallen to a historic low. See here: the decline in gas reserves.
The same applies to neighbouring countries such as Germany, France and others. Because we have hardly any domestic production of our own and no longer receive (cheap) gas from Russia, we will have to buy many billions’ worth of gas elsewhere. Storage is currently only 19.2% full.
See here: Gas reserves | National Energy Dashboard (in Dutch)
With some cold weather possibly still to come, things could get tense; in Scandinavia it is still much colder than normal.
See here: 30-day forecast: will wintry weather with a chance of snow stay close? (in Dutch)
If you have any questions about your personal situation, future purchasing options or anything else, we would of course be happy to hear from you.
You can also always visit http://www.rosa-energy.nl/ for more information on this subject.
